Purdue is looking for their first conference win and haven’t played well up till recently. They were competitive against Illinois and Northwestern, keeping the loss to single digits. This team also played a lot of the top schools and got blown out which is to be expected, but the teams they were competitive with where more closer to their talent level. The Spartans struggle to score and they have given up a lot more points on defense in the second half of the season to opponents, when they started out so well. This is a game between two struggling programs, but Purdue can be competitive and cover this spread as they have played a tough schedule and are battle tested. The Spartans are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in the last two seasons and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games this season. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Michigan State. Purdue has demonstrated that they can stay within two touchdowns with a program closer to their level.

Best bet: take the points with Purdue.