Albany returns only 28% of last year’s minutes and must replace stars Sebastian Thomas and Tyler Bertram. Its leading scorer, Amar’e Marshall, and its other important returning piece, Aaron Reddish, are both out for this game with injuries, as well. That's a concern against a Dartmouth team that returns 70% of its minutes played from last season. The Great Danes scored just 59 points on 36.7% shooting against Army and struggled to score on the perimeter against D-III SUNY Oneonta in their season lid-lifter, as they lack space shooters. The Big Green's tough, man-to-man defense won't let Albany get downhill into the paint for easy buckets at the rim, forcing them into poor mid-range and long-range shots.

The home team isn't likely to push it off those defensive rebounds, either. Last season, the Big Green ranked 311th in the country in adjusted tempo, and a couple of outlier games early this season don't change my thinking about their style of play. I also expect the visitors' length and athleticism to come into play on defense, forcing Dartmouth into a perimeter-based offense, which hasn't been its strength this season (8-for-29 from three (28%) vs. Sacred Heart). The home team ranks 337th in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom, and given the visitors' injuries, I wouldn't expect Dartmouth to try to beat the faster-paced Great Danes in an offensive exhibition. They'll slow it down on offense and rely on defense to outlast the visitors, holding the total to 150 or fewer points.