#778 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -2 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wolverines last Saturday were laying -2 at home vs Indiana. It was a game Michigan led pretty much throughout but went the final 5:00+ minutes of the game without scoring a single point and lost to the Hoosiers 62-61. Michigan missed their final 8 shots of the game and didn’t go to the FT line once in the final 5:00 minutes. IU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with under 3:00 remaining in the game. The Wolverines followed that up with a loss @ Wisconsin on Tuesday night and they are now in must win mode at home. Their only other home loss in Big 10 play was a tight game (75-70) vs Purdue and the Wolverines played that game without one of their top players, Jett Howard. On Saturday Michigan is laying -1.5 (opening line) vs MSU so less than last week vs IU despite the fact that the Hoosiers rank 10+ spots higher than the Spartans per KenPom. When these 2 met in East Lansing this season Sparty was favored by 3.5 and won 59-53. That tells us this line should be Michigan by around 4 points (or a bit higher) which is right in line with our power ratings giving us value on the host here. In that first meeting Michigan shot just 35% from the field and a terrible 15% from beyond the arc and scored only 18 points in the first half. Even with that terrible offensive performance, they still had a shot at the road win. MSU has been through a lot this week which is not ideal. Their game vs Minnesota on Wednesday was cancelled and school was called off until next week due to the terrible shooting tragedy on campus. Sparty continued to practice but per their head coach Tom Izzo their practices were “awful” midweek which is completely understandable. This is a tough spot for them on the road where they have not been good this season. They have a losing road record on the season and are scoring just 63 PPG away from home this season. The host has dominated this rivalry with the home team winning and covering 9 straight. Make that 10 straight with the Wolverines on Saturday night.