Lance Lynn is very underrated. He ranks in the top six in the National League in both ERA and batting average against holding opponents to a .210 average. Lynn has a good history versus the Reds, too, with a 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances, including 16 starts. Lynn had a 1.47 ERA in six July starts.

He is more trustworthy than Reds rookie starter Luis Castillo.

I like the potential of Castillo. But he's coming up on his career high in innings and has yet to win at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA.

Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 home games.

It's a big plus if the Cardinals get back catcher Yadier Molina as expected. He pinch-hit Friday after getting banged-up on Thursday.