I'm certainly not going to stand in the way of a freight train known as the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of 43 of their last 50 games. I do think the Mets, though, are going to be fired-up and sharp for this nationally televised game. They have been embarrassed by the Dodgers all season going 0-6 against them.

So I don't care to lay a huge price with LA. I do believe strongly, however, that this will be a tight, lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives.

Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is the healthiest he has been in two years and it's showing. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last four starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Giants last Sunday. He is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Mets.

The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen in the majors with a 2.95 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen is rested.

The Mets are averaging 2.3 runs in their last three games. New York has scored four or less runs in seven of their last 10 home games. Citi Field is more pitcher than hitter park. Often teams rest a key hitter or two on Sunday. Yoenis Cespedes is the Mets' top power hitter and he hasn't homered in 14 straight games at Citi Field.

A key to having this game stay under is Mets starter Steven Matz and New York's defense, which has improved with slick fielding rookie Amed Rosario the everyday shortstop now. Matz is one of the more promising lefties in baseball. He often gets overshadowed because of the Mets' massive talent of young starting pitchers. Matz is 2-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.50 ERA in three starts.

Matz held the Rockies to three runs in five innings during his last start, which was this past Tuesday. That game was at Coors Field. This one is at a much better pitching venue.