The Brewers were huge overachievers during the first half of the season. They are tumbling back to Earth now, losers of 15 of their last 22.

The Twins, meanwhile, are hanging in just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. They have won three in a row and have back All-Star power hitter Miguel Sano.

So why then are the Brewers such huge favorites here? Two words - Bartolo Colon.

The 44-year-old Colon is more craft than substance. He has a 5.18 ERA in four starts with Minnesota. That's a lot better, though, than the 8.14 ERA he recorded in 13 starts with the Braves before coming to the Twins.

Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is at the opposite spectrum. He's just beginning his career. This will be his second big league start. He blanked Tampa Bay in 6 1/3 innings six days ago.

I like Woodruff's potential. But he's going to go through growing pains. He was 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 Triple A starts before coming up.

The combination of Woodruff's wonderful debut and Colon's presence has created a line that is too high. So I'll make a value play and go with the 'dog at a nice mid-sized price.