Stephen Nover's MLB Underdog Game of the Week
(MLB) Chi Cubs vs. Arizona,
Money Line: 121.00 Arizona (Home)
Result: Win
Jon Lester has a 4.25 road ERA and is vulnerable to strong base stealing teams such as the Diamondbacks. Nobody knows this better than Arizona manager Tony Lovullo, who was a bench coach and running game coordinator for the Red Sox and worked closely with Lester when the two were in Boston together.

The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the majors with 77 stolen bases. The southpaw Lester gave up the most stolen bases in 2015 with a staggering 44 and is tied for fourth in allowing the most steals this season. Lester has a 4.94 lifetime ERA in five starts against Arizona.

Making matters worse for Lester and the Cubs is their catcher, Wilson Contreras, is out with a right hamstring strain. Not only was Contreras having a big year with the bat - 21 homers and 70 RBIs - but he had thrown out 20 base stealers. The Cubs' catching options now are Alex Avila, who caught yesterday, and rookie Victor Caratini. Avila has played only five games with the Cubs. Neither has experience with Lester.

Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. Corbin didn't allow more than two earned runs during four consecutive starts from July 9-26. He's been hurt by shoddy defense in his last two starts with four unearned runs. Corbin has pitched much better at Chase Field with a 6-3 mark and 3.14 ERA this season.

The roof is going to be closed for this game, which hurts the power for both teams. It's a break, though, for the Diamondbacks because they have by far the better running game. The Cubs rank 25th in steals.

The Diamondbacks have been highly successful against lefty starters at home winning 12 of the past 15 times.