PREMIUM
AAA's BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT - 12-3 (80%) ALL SPORTS L4 Days!
(NHL) Washington vs. Buffalo,
Money Line: -186.00 Washington (Away)
Result: Loss
Money Line: -186.00 Washington (Away)
Result: Loss
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: This is an obvious one, the Capitals come in off five straight victories, including a 4-1 win over Vancouver on Thursday, while the Sabres come in with heavy legs, after back-to-back wins, Buffalo would come up short in last night's 4-1 setback to the Bruins.
Inept offense: The Sabres have been atrocious on both ends of the ice during their six-game home slide, most noticeably getting outscored 17-6 while producing just two even-strength goals over that stretch.
Firing on all cylinders: The Capitals are the No. 1 team in the league right now and have outscored opponents 22-8 over their current five-game win streak and have gone 14-1-1 since December 12th. Washington is due for a big letdown loss, but it won't be today, this is a golden opportunity for the team to continue its incredible domination.
Depth at goaltender: Whether its Braden Holtby or backup Philipp Grubauer in net, clearly the visitors have the upper hand in that department; note that Holtby hasn't lost since November 10th and has compiled a 20-0-2 record and a 1.85 GAA, while Grubauer has a highly respectable 2.23 GAA in nine appearances this year. The Sabres got Robin Lehner back between the pipes on Friday, but it didn't help as he'd let in three third period goals. Backup Chad Johnson will likely get the start tonight.
Significant injury: Buffalo isn't loaded with talent, but does have a top play maker in forward Tyler Ennis, who will once again be sitting this one out with an upper-body injury. And now Zemgus Girgensons is also sidelined after suffering a similar injury in the setback to the Bruins.
ATS statistics: Note that Washington is 10-1 (+8.5 units) following a non-conference game, while Buffalo is 9-20 (-5.7 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Lay the price with confidence as the CAPITALS take full advantage of this situation and cruise to a comfortable victory.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: This is an obvious one, the Capitals come in off five straight victories, including a 4-1 win over Vancouver on Thursday, while the Sabres come in with heavy legs, after back-to-back wins, Buffalo would come up short in last night's 4-1 setback to the Bruins.
Inept offense: The Sabres have been atrocious on both ends of the ice during their six-game home slide, most noticeably getting outscored 17-6 while producing just two even-strength goals over that stretch.
Firing on all cylinders: The Capitals are the No. 1 team in the league right now and have outscored opponents 22-8 over their current five-game win streak and have gone 14-1-1 since December 12th. Washington is due for a big letdown loss, but it won't be today, this is a golden opportunity for the team to continue its incredible domination.
Depth at goaltender: Whether its Braden Holtby or backup Philipp Grubauer in net, clearly the visitors have the upper hand in that department; note that Holtby hasn't lost since November 10th and has compiled a 20-0-2 record and a 1.85 GAA, while Grubauer has a highly respectable 2.23 GAA in nine appearances this year. The Sabres got Robin Lehner back between the pipes on Friday, but it didn't help as he'd let in three third period goals. Backup Chad Johnson will likely get the start tonight.
Significant injury: Buffalo isn't loaded with talent, but does have a top play maker in forward Tyler Ennis, who will once again be sitting this one out with an upper-body injury. And now Zemgus Girgensons is also sidelined after suffering a similar injury in the setback to the Bruins.
ATS statistics: Note that Washington is 10-1 (+8.5 units) following a non-conference game, while Buffalo is 9-20 (-5.7 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Lay the price with confidence as the CAPITALS take full advantage of this situation and cruise to a comfortable victory.
AAA Sports
