Stephen Nover's ESPN Thursday CFB Big Ticket
(NCAAF) Georgia State vs. Arkansas State, 10/15/2020 7:30 PM, Score: 52 - 59
Point Spread: -3.00 | -110.00 Arkansas State (Home)
Bookmaker: TopBet
Result: Win
Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. 
The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team.
Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. 
Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. 
Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. 
Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.