Money Line: -116.00 Tampa Bay (Home)
Tampa Bay has the much deeper bullpen, is the better fielding team and Kevin Cash is a superior manager to Dusty Baker.
I also prefer Charlie Morton over Lance McCullers in the starting pitching matchup.
Morton has given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in the postseason this year. He beat the Astros in Game 2 firing five scoreless innings. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 playoff appearances that includes 10 starts.
McCullers is a feast-or-famine type pitcher. He's allowed five homers during his last two starts spanning 11 innings.
The last four innings could be taken over by the bullpens. The Rays hold a big edge there especially with Houston's top bullpen guys dealing with fatigue issues.