Stephen Nover's NFL Thursday Big Ticket
(NFL) NY Giants vs. Philadelphia, 10/22/2020 8:20 PM, Score: 21 - 22
Total: 45.00 | -106.00 Under
Result: Win
This is the first time I have ever led an analysis talking about punters. But they matter here because I envision a lot of punting in this Thursday matchup. Not good for viewership, but plenty good for going Under the total.

Opponents have returned just nine of Giants' punter Riley Dixon's 18 punts. Dixon has placed half of his punts inside the 20. Eagles punter Cam Johnston ranks second in the NFL in gross average and fourth in net yardage. Don't look for these teams to have good field position throughout the game.

The Eagles are off their most physical matchup of the season. They exerted a lot of energy in a 30-28 loss to the Ravens last week after trailing by 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz was sacked or knocked down 18 times. Now the Eagles have to play again on just three day's rest. Philadelphia will be without its star running back Miles Sanders, who had all but 17 of the Eagles' rushing attempts during their last five games. Tight end Zach Ertz is out, too.

Wentz has been sacked a league-high 25 times playing behind a patch-work offensive line. He has the worst completion percentage of any starting QB in the league. He's thrown nine interceptions, two more than he had all of last season.

Daniel Jones has thrown one TD pass since Week 1. His nickname has gone from "Danny Dimes" to "Danny Turnovers" because he has turned the ball over 32 times in 18 career starts. The Giants rank last in yards per game and are second-to-last in scoring averaging 16.8. Losing Saquan Barkley for the season was a killer for the Giants offense. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett hasn't helped, which is no big surprise.

The Eagles have a bigger game on deck hosting Dallas next week. They need to physically survive this game keeping Wentz in one piece. A conservative game plan should be in place sprinkled with a little Jalen Hurts. The Giants have held their last four foes to 3.3 yards per carry. New York's defense is better than its offense. The Giants have good safeties and cornerback James Bradberry is above average. The Giants also have the 11th-most sacks.

The Giants don't figure to come into Philadelphia, a place where they have lost the last six times, and try to play wide-open. They don't have the personnel for that, nor the coaching acumen. The Giants need to keep things simple for second-year QB Jones and limit his turnovers. Jones has become more dangerous as a runner than thrower ranking 31st in the league passer ratings. The Eagles have held opposing running backs to 3.3 yards per run.