I don't have the courage to take the Pirates to win straight-up, but I am comfortable taking them on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. The Pirates are 1-5, but those five losses have come by a combined seven runs. They lost the first two games of this series against the Phillies by one and two runs, respectively.

If given 1 1/2 runs, the Pirates would be 12-5 in their last 17 games.

I give Pittsburgh a starting pitching edge here in a matchup of Ranger Suarez against Mitch Keller. Suarez has a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 ERA. Keller's 4.55 ERA is misleading. He's pitched much better during his last 10 starts giving up three or fewer runs in eight of those outings.

Keller has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 ratio during his last three starts with an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this three-game, 19-inning span.