If ever the Marlins can beat the Dodgers, this is the spot. The pitching matchup is Dusty May, making only his second start of the season returning from Tommy John surgery, against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara.

The total is 6 1/2 down from an opening 7. So the oddsmaker and marketplace certainly are anticipating a low-scoring game. The Dodgers are overinflated enough where I can take the Marlins on the run line at an excellent price. There is good reason for the Dodgers to be overinflated - they are the best team in baseball at 87-37. This includes a 42-9 record in their last 51 games.

But it also means the Dodgers have no urgency cruising into the final month of the regular season. It took 10 innings last night for the Dodgers to dispatch the Marlins. Now the Marlins hold a strong starting pitching edge. Miami is 17 games below .500. But are 15-10 when Alcantara has pitched. Alcantara is 11-6 on the season with a 2.19 ERA. He holds a career 2.82 ERA pitching in Miami.

May is on the comeback trail. He went five innings throwing 71 pitches in his season debut a week ago. The Dodgers do not have an elite bullpen. LA is vulnerable here. Taking 1 1/2 runs is nice insurance.