PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's August Run Line Game of the Month - 8-1 Last 9 Run Lines
(MLB) NY Yankees vs. LA Angels,
08/29/2022 9:38 PM, Score: 3 - 4
Point Spread: -1.50 | -104.00 NY Yankees (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -1.50 | -104.00 NY Yankees (Away)
Result: Loss
On the surface this seems like a spot to back the underdog Angels. After all, they just swept three games from the Blue Jays in Toronto while the Yankees dropped their second straight game to the lowly A's in Oakland on Sunday.
But I don't see it that way. Instead I see this as a kill spot for the Yankees. So I'm taking them on the run line, eliminating the heavy juice that comes with backing the much superior Yankees.
Not only do the Yankees possess a huge offensive advantage, but they have the better starting pitcher going and a strong situational edge. The Angels just concluded a 10-game road trip that took them to Detroit, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They had to make the 5 1/2-hour flight back to Southern California on Sunday night while the Yankees just had a short flight from Oakland to Los Angeles already being on the West Coast .
Keep in mind, too, that the Angels had lost nine of 10 before sweeping the Blue Jays. The Yankees had gotten back in a groove winning five in a row before losing to Oakland on Saturday and Sunday.
Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.
Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings.
Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road.
But I don't see it that way. Instead I see this as a kill spot for the Yankees. So I'm taking them on the run line, eliminating the heavy juice that comes with backing the much superior Yankees.
Not only do the Yankees possess a huge offensive advantage, but they have the better starting pitcher going and a strong situational edge. The Angels just concluded a 10-game road trip that took them to Detroit, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They had to make the 5 1/2-hour flight back to Southern California on Sunday night while the Yankees just had a short flight from Oakland to Los Angeles already being on the West Coast .
Keep in mind, too, that the Angels had lost nine of 10 before sweeping the Blue Jays. The Yankees had gotten back in a groove winning five in a row before losing to Oakland on Saturday and Sunday.
Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.
Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings.
Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road.
