I like getting a tournament underdog that went 2-0 versus the favorite during the regular season. Wisconsin-Milwaukee fits that pattern against Cleveland State in this Horizon League Tournament semifinal matchup.

The Panthers defeated Cleveland State on the road in overtime and then beat the Vikings again by a solid nine points at home on Feb. 25.

Milwaukee ranks 40th in the country in scoring at 78 points a game, which is seven points higher than what Cleveland State averages. The Panthers are off an impressive dismantling of Wright State, 87-70, this past Thursday in the quarterfinals.

Cleveland State had to go overtime to beat Robert Morris in its quarterfinal matchup, failing to cover as six-point favorites.

The key could be 3-point shooting. Milwaukee holds a massive edge in this key category. The Panthers rank in the top 100 in 3-point accuracy. Cleveland State is 338th in 3-point percentage. The Panthers are 27th in defensive 3-point percentage.

I see the wrong team being favored. So I'm on Milwaukee.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 23-9 on his last 32 premium/free basketball plays and has his Big Sky Conference Game of the Year heading his Monday card.)