PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Championship Series Total of Year
(NBA) Miami vs. Denver,
06/04/2023 8:00 PM, Score: 111 - 108
Total: 214.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Win
Total: 214.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Win
This is Denver's lowest total of the season and an overreaction to the Nuggets' 104-93 Game 1 home win this past Thursday.
That was a feel-out game. The Heat were still on fumes following their Game 7 upset win against the Celtics and were not used to the high mountain altitude in Denver. The Nuggets were rusty having not played in 10 days.
All of this showed in Thursday's opener. The teams combined to shoot just 31.8 percent from 3-point range making 21-of-66 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat were only 13-of-39 from 3-point range with six of those 3-pointers coming when the game already was out of reach. This despite getting good looks throughout the game.
This was Miami's worst shooting 3-point game of the playoffs. They were shooting 39 percent from 3-point range during the postseason entering this championship matchup. The Nuggets shot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc going into the playoffs. They made only eight of their 27 3-point shots for 29.6 percent.
The Heat also only got to shoot two free throws! It was the first time Jimmy Butler didn't have a free throw attempt during the postseason. The Nuggets are not some dominant defensive team either. They ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage. I see Butler coming out extra aggressive for this Game 2.
It was obvious in Game 1 that the Nuggets' frontcourt size was too much for the Heat. Nikola Jokic isn't just a great triple-threat talent. He's also extremely intelligent. He can find Miami's weakness and exploit it either by scoring, or passing off. Michael Porter Jr. isn't likely to miss nine of 11 3-point shots. He finished in the top 20 in 3-point shooting accuracy during the regular season at 41.4 percent.
There's not much Miami coach Erik Spoelstra can do. One option would be for him to go with his best offensive weapons playing them as much as possible. That would be the dream scenario for this Over and could happen as the Nuggets are easily capable of reaching their season average of 115.8 points. They were the No. 1 shooting team in the NBA during the regular season making 50.4 percent of their field goals.
That was a feel-out game. The Heat were still on fumes following their Game 7 upset win against the Celtics and were not used to the high mountain altitude in Denver. The Nuggets were rusty having not played in 10 days.
All of this showed in Thursday's opener. The teams combined to shoot just 31.8 percent from 3-point range making 21-of-66 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat were only 13-of-39 from 3-point range with six of those 3-pointers coming when the game already was out of reach. This despite getting good looks throughout the game.
This was Miami's worst shooting 3-point game of the playoffs. They were shooting 39 percent from 3-point range during the postseason entering this championship matchup. The Nuggets shot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc going into the playoffs. They made only eight of their 27 3-point shots for 29.6 percent.
The Heat also only got to shoot two free throws! It was the first time Jimmy Butler didn't have a free throw attempt during the postseason. The Nuggets are not some dominant defensive team either. They ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage. I see Butler coming out extra aggressive for this Game 2.
It was obvious in Game 1 that the Nuggets' frontcourt size was too much for the Heat. Nikola Jokic isn't just a great triple-threat talent. He's also extremely intelligent. He can find Miami's weakness and exploit it either by scoring, or passing off. Michael Porter Jr. isn't likely to miss nine of 11 3-point shots. He finished in the top 20 in 3-point shooting accuracy during the regular season at 41.4 percent.
There's not much Miami coach Erik Spoelstra can do. One option would be for him to go with his best offensive weapons playing them as much as possible. That would be the dream scenario for this Over and could happen as the Nuggets are easily capable of reaching their season average of 115.8 points. They were the No. 1 shooting team in the NBA during the regular season making 50.4 percent of their field goals.
