Astros/Rangers: fool me once... *9*
(MLB) Houston vs. Texas, 09/16/2021 8:05 PM, Score: 12 - 1
Total: 8.50 | -114.00 Over
Result: Win
Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92)

The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment.

The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros.

Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September.

As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings.