10* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): This line seems to be a complete overreaction to the Sixers losing Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. Simmons, who dislocated his kneecap in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards, is a very good player. But I never saw much chemistry between him and the Sixers’ other star, Joe Embiid. Sure enough, Philly won its first game w/o Simmons, defeating Orlando 108-101 Friday and covering the spread as 4.5-point chalk.

Portland suffered a BRUTAL loss yesterday, falling to the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers 122-117, a game where the Blazers were bet heavily and ended up closing as favorites. Even as a 3.5-pt dog, I felt the Blazers were being a bit overvalued. Closing as a favorite, they were definitely overvalued. The same scenario exists here as my numbers would have Philadelphia favored by 3.5 points if Simmons were playing. This looks like another overreaction towards Portland.

The Blazers are one of the teams fighting to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. That’s what made yesterday’s result all the more tough to swallow. Remember that this is a team that’s been outscored per 100 possessions and is playing the second game of a B2B (likely without Hassan Whiteside). The Blazers are seven games below .500 for the year and are every bit as bad on the road as the Sixers. In Philly’s win over Orlando on Friday, Al Horford stepped up big with 21 pts and 9 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. Portland is just 3-8 SU in the 2nd game of a B2B this year. 10* Philadelphia