(MLB) Tampa Bay vs. Houston, 10/14/2020 8:40 PM, Score: 3 - 4
Point Spread: 1.50 | -135.00 Houston (Home)
Bookmaker: Bet365
Result: Win
10* Houston Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. Tampa Bay has gone an incredible 16-5 in one-run games this season, including postseason. That .762 win percentage would be the best EVER for a team in any season in baseball history. The Rays took Game 1 by a score of 2-1 and have since taken advantage of some sloppy Astros’ defense to win 4-2 and 5-2. This is obviously a “must-win” for the Astros and I don’t think they’re ready to go home yet.

The Astros have to be kicking themselves that they’re down 0-3 in this series. They have more hits than the Rays (26-18) and that edge should probably be even larger based on how much they’re making contact. But Tampa Bay’s superior fielding has been the difference so far in the ALCS as the L2 days have seen Jose Altuve make costly errors, giving the Rays the one big inning that they needed. TB has scored all but one of its runs the L2 days in just two innings.

Getting Zack Greinke +1.5 runs is a luxury you rarely see. Greinke has been a ML dog only three times this season, not counting tonight. The last time was Game 1 of the 1st round series with Minnesota, which Houston won. One of the other two times resulted in a one-run loss. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow in Game 4. He has a 12-2 TSR this season including 11-0 the L11! But, despite the shiny team start record, Glasnow’s numbers are very similar to Greinke. The 3-0 lead the Rays currently enjoy is not really indicative of how this series has gone. 10* Houston Run Line (+1.5)