(NCAAF) SMU vs. Tulane, 10/16/2020 6:00 PM, Score: 37 - 34
Point Spread: 6.50 | -110.00 Tulane (Home)
Bookmaker: Bet365
Result: Win
10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020.

SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards.

SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane