8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points.

East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF.

With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina