(NCAAF) Wisconsin vs. Northwestern, 11/21/2020 3:30 PM, Score: 7 - 17
Point Spread: -7.50 | -110.00 Wisconsin (Away)
Bookmaker: Bet365
Result: Loss
10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender.

I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week.

The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin