10* Under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 ET): Sacramento’s defense has been so bad that it almost has “no choice” but to improve. The Kings are dead last in the league in a variety of defensive categories and as a result are just 5-8 SU on the year. They have allowed 122 or more points in seven straight games and the last two they gave up 132 and 138. That makes tonight’s play on the Under quite the “contrarian” call, but I’ve got reason to believe the new defensive system that HC Luke Walton is implementing will start to take hold.

New Orleans is not a great offensive team. They are averaging just 105.9 PPG for the season, which is 28th (third worst) in the league. On Friday, they were held under 100 points for the fourth time this season despite shooting better than 60% in the 1st half. Now they were facing the Lakers, who are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Kings in terms of defense. But still, scoring 37 points in a half is really bad (which is what the Pelicans did in the 2H vs. LA). They are 5-1 Under on the road so far this season.

That game vs. the Lakers stayed Under the total as did the Pelicans’ first five games of the season. In between that, they went Over in five straight. But tonight will mark the highest O/U line for them since the third game of the season. Sacramento has been facing some very good offensive teams of late, which is why the Over is 6-1 their L7 games. But they’re not facing a good offensive team here. Also, the Kings have scored 100 or less in two of their last four games. New Orleans can hold them to a low number too as they rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings