8* Seattle (10:10 ET): At first, I was a little bit leery of taking the Mariners. After all, this is a ballclub that’s clearly overachieved in 2021. Despite a -46 run differential, they are two games above .500. But a quick look at Colorado’s road record is more than enough to alleviate any apprehension I have about the home team here. There are some dreadful road records in baseball this season, but none are worse than Colorado’s absolutely pathetic 5-27 mark. Given how the money line has moved this morning, I’m taking the M’s.

Seattle has won four straight, so they’re hot. I made the mistake of fading them both Saturday and Sunday against Tampa Bay. Both games did go to extra innings, which I guess is fine for the Mariners as they are 7-1 in games this year that go past the ninth. They also have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories. That stuff is what made me leery here. But the win streak coupled with having Chris Flexen on the mound is enough to convince me that they can easily defeat MLB’s worst road team.

Flexen has a 9-3 TSR and has been good at home where his ERA and WHIP are 2.16 and 1.032. Last Tuesday, he threw eight scoreless innings against Minnesota, a game Seattle won 10-0. It was the second time in his last three starts at home that Flexen went 7+ innings and did not give up a run. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has given up lots of runs as he has a 9.58 ERA in five starts. That ERA is even worse over the L3 starts (12.79) and he has a 2.447 WHIP to boot. Over the last three seasons, Freeland is 5-16 with a 6.16 ERA in 40 starts. 8* Seattle