10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest.

The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta