9* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): I had the Phillies last night as they rolled to a 3-0 victory over San Diego in the middle game of this three-game set. That result was quite welcome in the City of Brotherly Love as not only had the home team lost by that same 3-0 score on Monday, but they’d lost two in a row overall. But as explained in yday’s analysis, the Phils had been playing well before blowing a late lead to the Dodgers on Sunday. They’d won five of six, three of those victories coming out in LA. Also, Philly is better than its record (18-19) as they have a +18 YTD run differential and have scored the most runs of any NL East team. I like them to win again this afternoon and take the series.

The Phillies will look to get back to .500 today behind right-hander Kyle Gibson, who has been excellent at home thus far in 2022. Gibson has a 1.93 ERA/0.696 WHIP in three starts at Citizens Bank Park and won them all. He faces a Padres lineup that has not only now been shutout three times in its last 10 games, but has also produced a total of only 23 hits in its last four games. Though Gibson struggled last time out against the Dodgers, that was on the road. He’s 2-0 lifetime vs. San Diego with a 2.84 ERA in three starts.

Yu Darvish may have similar numbers overall compared to Gibson, but the Padres’ starter for Thursday has struggled on the road. You’re talking about a 7.91 ERA and 1.706 WHIP away from San Diego. Darvish does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts overall, just like Gibson does, but he was roughed up for five runs his last time out (on the road). Interesting to note that San Diego, despite having a 23-14 record, actually has a worse YTD run differential compared to the Padres. That tells me to “throw the records out the window” here as I’m banking on the rather dramatic home vs. road splits for Gibson and Darvish to continue. 9* Philadelphia