I'm playing LOUISVILLE on the money-line. The Cardinals badly need a victory and I believe that the Seminoles are the right opponent for them to get one against. Yes, Louisville has dropped four straight. However, the last three of those came on the road. The Cardinals are finally back home and they'll be facing an FSU team which has really struggled on the road. In two road games, the Seminoles have allowed 94 points, losing by an average score of 47-18. The Noles are now just 2-10 their last 12 road games. While I do like the Cardinals to cover, I absolutely expect the outright victory. Lousville is 8-2 SU the past 10 times it was favored. During that span, FSU is 3-11 SU as an underdog. That includes an 0-3 SU mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. While the Noles won last week, they're just 2-5 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, off a conf. win. The Cards just held ND to 12 points, the same Irish team which dropped 42 on FSU the previous week. Louisville wins.