MIT Simulator - NFL Sunday Eagles vs 49ers Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Philadelphia 24.23, San Francisco 21.60 - Projected Margin of Victory: 2.63 - Current Line: 13 - Variance to Line: 10.37 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 10.37 points. Value in double digits. Projected box-score shows Eagles rushing edge of 7.92 yards in excess of 49'ers rushing total. Key factors noted: Eagles are off key divisional win over the Redskins and it was on Monday night. Not only is Philadelphia on a short week but that win over Washington was their most important victory so far this season as it gives them a huge lead in the NFC East. The Eagles also have a game on deck against Denver and so this is a tough spot for Philadelphia as it the "easy" in between game that is often the toughest. Value is in this line because San Francisco's very ugly loss to Dallas last week helped to inflate this number. Niners prior 5 games were all decided by 3 points or less and that is what the simulation is calling for here. All four 49ers road games this season have been decided by 3 points or less. San Francisco was hurt by fumbles against Dallas last week. Rookie QB Beathard did go 22 of 38 for 235 yards and the Eagles have been giving up some big passing yardage this season. Philly is at top of league for run defense but near bottom of league for pass defense. Projected box-score shows Philadelphia with a passing edge of 28.14 yards in excess of San Francisco passing total. Combined edge of 36.06 yards for Philadelphia equating to victory by 2.63 points per MIT Simulator. Play: 49ERS