MIT Simulator - NCAAF Friday California vs UCLA Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Golden Bears 31.93, Bruins 31.61 - Projected Margin of Victory: 0.32 - Current Line: +7 - Variance to Line: 7.32 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 7.32 points. Value in excess of a touchdown! Projected box-score shows California rushing edge of 24.85 yards in excess of UCLA rushing total. Key factors noted: UCLA fired their head coach Mora and now offensive coordinator Fisch is the interim head coach. However, the Bruins problem is not their offense, it is a defense that ranks among the worst in the nation! With both teams needing a win for bowl eligibility, there is a lot of value with the sizable underdog Bears here. The Golden Bears are the better team on defense and they held the Bruins to just 10 points in last season's meeting. Also, Cal lost by just 3 points at Stanford last week. Though just 2-3 their last 5 games, California has had only 1 loss by more than 3 points in those 5 games. Also, with their bye week prior to facing the Cardinal, the Bears have the fresher legs here as UCLA is playing for a 7th straight week. Out of all 11 games the Bruins have played this season UCLA has only 2 wins by more than a TD! You have to like the odds here as that is a 9-2 record in favor of fading the Bruins here! Projected box-score shows Bruins passing edge of 17.06 yards in excess of Golden Bears passing total. Net edge of 7.79 total yards for the underdog equating to evenly matched game per MIT Simulator which equates to solid value with the big road underdog. Play: CALIFORNIA