MIT Simulator - NCAAF Saturday Florida State vs Florida Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Gators 23.27, Seminoles 21.78 - Projected Margin of Victory: 1.49 - Current Line: +6 - Variance to Line: 7.49 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 7.49 points. Value in excess of a touchdown! Projected box-score shows Florida passing edge of 22.84 yards in excess of Florida State passing total. Key factors noted: Both teams have had disappointing seasons but Florida has been playing better and seems to have responded some since the coaching change. The Gators would love to prevent the rival Seminoles from reaching a bowl game. Florida State's game against UAB was rescheduled for next week and that gives FSU a chance at a 6th win IF they can get past Florida this week. The Gators would love to squash the Noles hopes of keeping their bowl streak alive. Florida has revenge from double digit losses to Florida State each of the last two seasons and this Seminoles team is nowhere near the level of those teams. Statistically these teams are very nearly equal plus the Gators are at home. That said, there is big line value here considering that Florida is a sizable dog and the line has moved up heading toward gameday. FSU has the longest active bowl streak at 35 and you know the Gators disappointing season could be made so much better (and momentum built for next season) by putting an end to that run. Florida State is 1-8 ATS this season. Florida is 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and all 3 of those wins were SU wins too! Looks like an upset here! Projected box-score shows Gators rushing edge of 23.38 yards in excess of Seminoles rushing total. Combined edge of 46.22 total yards for the underdog equating to upset win per MIT Simulator which equates to solid line value with the home dog. Play: FLORIDA