MLB - Run Line. No team in MLB has more 1-run wins than Tampa Bay as 35% of their wins this season have come by just a single run. The simulation report is forecasting that the Phillies have a great shot at the upset win here but that the extra value with the +1.5 runs is where the best probability of victory lies. The Phillies, at +1.5 runs in each of their games this season, would produce a record of 37-20. The Rays, at -1.5 runs in each of their games this season, would produce a record of 24-33 on the season. Velasquez is off a strong start for the Phillies and the only Tampa Bay hitters with experience against him are a combined 0 for 11. The Phillies have hitters totaling 61 at bats against Morton and they have 4 homers and 11 RBI combined in those at-bats. Morton also has not been as dominant this season. Play PHILADELPHIA Run Line +1.5 runs