Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is -12.5. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves. South Florida does not have the talent to keep up with Memphis and our computer confirms this is a great spot.

We have an angle that says when one team averages substantially more points per game but is not laying a large number, it favors a situation that applies to Memphis that is 143-106-6. If the line dropped another point, the angle becomes even more beautiful.

Yes Memphis gave up a ton of yards in the air the last two week, but that was to two super potent offenses. South Florida has passed for 185 yards combined, yes combined the last two games. They cannot exploit the Tigers weakness. This game is a rout. In fact, we have a few systems that say to go with teams off consecutive horrid games in allowing passing yards.