When a road team has a worse SU record, but is not a large underdog despite home field advantage generally equating to three-points, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us and bet the road team at 275-175-15. One that does not completely overlap says that both SU and home/road splits say the road team should be a much bigger dog, so go with the message the oddsmakers are telling us has an ROI of 18.2.
Going with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 363-265-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.