The Nevada Wolf Pack offense owns a top-30 running game and is one of two teams with two 1,000-yard rushers. Meanwhile, the Colorado St Rams have been horrible against the run, allowing an average of 208 yards rushing per game, which ranks 108th in the nation.
Nevada is on a 6-1 SU run when they rush for at least 200 yards in a game.
I see Nevada controlling stretches of the game with their run-game and playing the better defense and getting the outright win.

Colorado State's offense has shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with a high turnover rate which is one of the worst in the nation, and Nevada has a hungry secondary, ready to take full advantage.