With the line at only 3 why would we play on a team that is 11-12 versus one that is #1 in the NCAA in win% this season at 21-2 ? That would be because ULM is 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS at home while Ark-LR is 9-2 SU on the road but only 2-4 ATS their last 6 games away from home and this is their first road game since Jan 23rd. The Trojans count on their defense to win games and in fact the lead the NCAA in defensive ppg allowed and are 4th in defensive FG% at 37.0%.The value here is that ULM is the conferences #1 scoring offense and #1 team in FG% at 45.7%. By looking at how the Trojans do when allowing over 40% shooting in a game we find they are 0-5 ATS and one ATS loss was at home versus ULM when they allowed 44% shooting and only won by a single point as an 11 point favorite. FYI: The Warhawks are averaging 53.4% shooting at home and have shot OVER 50% in all but one game (shot 41% in other).