This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State.

Am I calling for an outright upset?

I'm not. But I do think this spread is out of hand as I look for Ball State to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch in the MAC Championship game.

The Bulls enter off a 56-7 beatdown of Akron and they're now 5-0. Ball State is 5-1 after a thrilling 30-27 win over Western Michigan as a 2.5 points underdog.

Buffalo averages 51.8 PPG, and it allows 21. Of course, those nationally ranked stats are skewed due to the level of the competition it's faced.

Ball State erased a two-touchdown deficit last weekend to knock off WMU and I like it to keep the confidence and momentum rolling here.

The Cardinals have covered in three straight and in this magnified championship contest, I expect a very tight and competitive battle until the end. While not as impressive as the Bulls, Ball State still puts up very decent numbers, averaging 33.7 and allowing 27.5.

Ball State is by far the best team that the Bulls have faced this year. So take that into account as well.

As stated off the top, no outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points.

Good luck, NP