This is a 10* TOP THURSDAY TOTAL on the UNDER Tigers/Rangers.

Detroit's seen the total fly OVER in five straight now after its 10-5 loss here yesterday.

Previous to that it won 7-3.

This is the series finale and I think that the value has now finally swung the other way on the total.

We have two very competent starting hurlers squaring off against each other, and I expect them to battle into the latter frames.

The Tigers see Casey Mize (5-5, 3.55 ERA) take the hill and he most recently conceded two runs off four hits while striking out four over three innings in a loss to the White Sox.

Over 91.1 innings Mize has a very respectable 75:27 K:BB and he's been at his best on the road this season, going 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA.

Mize is expected to see limited action in the second half, so I look for him to come out prepared here in his final start before the Mid-Summer Classic.

The Rangers have to be feeling confident with ace Kyle Gibson on the hill, he's 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA.

He most recently allowed one run and struck out seven over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Friday.

I love predicting when teams or players are going to stumble after a long win streak of fantastic run of form, or when teams will finally break a losing streak, or when a struggling player will get back on track, but in this case, I don't see that letdown happening yet for Gibson.

He's locked in and focused completely now in his final start before the All Star game and note that he's an unreal 5-0 with a 1.10 ERA at home this season.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP