This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Pelicans.

I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do believe that the conditions are correct for a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Pels have fallen on hard times over the last month, but I expect them to dig deep here and keep it competitive throughout. One angle to note is, the Pels play with revenge here after a tight 99-98 home loss as 3-point dogs to the Nuggets just last week. While they covered the spread, still note that New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in.

After an extended winning the run, Denver has cooled off a bit over the last week, going just 2-2 in its last four. It's off a l26-119 loss at Philly most recently. With a couple nights off after this before a home game vs. the defending champs, I say the Nuggets get caught "looking ahead" here as well.

As I said, no outright or anything, but this one will come "down to the wire." Grab the points, the play is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP