This is a 10* EAST-CONF GOY on the Heat.

Maybe surprisingly, the Heat and 76ers play for the first time this year. I like the way this one sets up for the struggling Heat. This is the first game of a back-to-back and if Miami loses this one, I'll almost assuredly be on it again in the next one.

But I do think that the desperate Heat have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Miami has lost four straight SU/ATS and it prompted Jimmy Butler to say after the 108-103 road loss at Charlotte to say: "I hate losing."

I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the 76ers, who had their five-game win streak snapped in a tight 110-107 loss to Boston. Philadelphia uses the Celtics as a measuring stick in the East. It was a big mental loss and I say their ripe for the picking here in fact.

Miami is also still 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is MIAMI.

Good luck, NP