This is where the loss of Tyler Herro really effects the Heats chances of overcoming a team that is built largely similar to them. Both teams are slow paced and defensively sound, but there are more reliable talents on the Knicks roster than Miami's currently. New York is 3-1 this season vs Miami and those were close games that involved Tyler Herro who averaged 23 points overall in those matchups. That's going to be a huge drop off chance-wise for this playoff meeting, as the Knicks have only improved as a team. Jimmy Butler does not have very promising stats vs NY this year and will need to continue his herculean efforts, but it's not enough for me to justify taking the points with Miami. Recency bias is the cause of this lines number, and I'm not getting fooled by Jimmy's breakout vs the Bucks. I'm laying the points with NY.

Official Play: Knicks -4.5

Side Bet: Jimmy Butler Under 30.5 points

Side Bet: RJ Barrett over 18.5 Points

Side Bet: Over 207.5