The Falcons are coming into this game with an 8-7 record this season and they have won their last 2 straight games. They benched Kirk Cousins due to his struggles and they played much better in their last game with Michael Penix making his NFL debut. They beat the Giants 34-7, but the Giants are the worst team in the league this season so it is going to be tough for Penix to repeat that against a much better team that is playoff bound. This is still just his 2nd ever NFL start and he will be playing against a much better defense that held rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to just 15 points earlier this season. They are going up against a Commanders team that is 10-5 this season and they are going to have a lot of confidence as they are coming off of a win against the Eagles in their last game. That was a big win for the Commanders because it moved them 1 game closer to clinching a playoff spot, but now they also have a chance to win the division as well. They have been heating up in their recent games as well, winning their last 3 straight games. The Falcons have been playing better defense in their last 2 games, but those games were against 2 of the worst teams in the league in the Raiders and the Giants. Prior to this 2 game win streak, they had allowed 38+ points in 2 of their last 3 games and their secondary has been awful for most of the season as well. Jayden Daniels has been heating up recently with his connection to Terry McLaurin growing stronger, but he can also attack this defense with his legs making this a very dangerous offense to defend for a team like the Falcons. Penix is going to struggle more in his 2nd start against a better defense and the Falcons defense is not going to look as good as it has in their last 2 games against weaker offenses. The Commanders will cover the spread in this game.