This game should go over the total. Corbin will give up runs with his ERA well over 5. He's been giving up runs recently. The bullpen for Pittsburgh should give up runs as well, the Pirates have given up over four runs in their last six games, and they tend to give up more runs at home. Head to head, these two have played their most recent games to the over. When Corbin starts for the Nationals, the team has gone 8-4 to the over. The model projects over 11 runs in this game so take the over.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games against an opponent in the National League. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.