Iowa is coming off a bad beating by Iowa State and this will be a good bounce back spot for them at home to get right again. They host a Michigan team that are struggling on defense and not great on the road as they lost to Memphis and Oregon. They also lost to Texas Tech and Indiana at home recently. Iowa is the better team right now of the two, playing better ball on offense and defense. Iowa is better at not turning the ball over and they are better at making their shots. This is a revenge spot for Michigan, but Iowa is at home and this is where they get comfortable, so lay the small spread.

Iowa are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home. Michigan are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Michigan are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. Iowa is 17-6 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1997. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Michigan are 4-12 ATS in the last three seasons after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Best bet: lay the points with Iowa.