Cleveland has proved to be this season's surprise team, as they have found success with their fifth QB in one season, in Joe Flacco a veteran Super Bowl winner. On the other side, first time QB quarterbacks in the playoffs are 27-50 SU and 30-46-1 ATS, and as a rookie first appearance, 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS since 2002. He is going up against an older experienced Flacco who has shown that he can still be effective in a game. Cleveland has been able to shut down teams on offense with their stifling defense. They were able to beat Houston in Houston a month ago, so doing it again on the road should be no issue. What is different from that game is that CJ Stroud is playing in this one. He will help the Texans keep this game closer, but a lot of the offense will be countered by the Brown's defense, and since the Texans don't have much of a running game, it won't be too difficult for the Browns to stop a one dimensional offense. The Brown's have played with confidence and purpose and it's hard to see them losing this game when they have been through so much this season, a team that beat two Superbowl contenders in the 49's and the Ravens this season.

The Browns are 3-1 ATS this season against AFC South division opponents. Cleveland are 3-0 ATS since 1992 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Cleveland are 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 30 points or more last game. The Browns are 4-1 ATS this season after playing their last game on the road. The Texans are 2-2 ATS this season as a home underdog of 3 points or less. The Texans are 2-2 ATS against AFC North division opponents. The Texans are 1-4 ATS this season after a win by 6 or less points. Cleveland are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Cleveland are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Houston. Houston are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland.

Best bet: lay the small spread with Cleveland.