Illinois have played great offense so far in this tournament, winning six games in a row, but they haven't seen a defense like Iowa States this season. Defense travels and it wins in March. The Cyclones will lock it down and won't let Shannon and Domansk drive the ball. Iowa State will control the pace and slow this game down and keep the Illini from running up the score, and force them to shoot outside the paint. Illinois has great offense but the Cyclones offense is also a top 50 offense that is decent and underrated and Iowa State played the stronger strength of schedule this season too. The last time these two teams played each other, the Cyclones beat Illinois by double digits. Iowa State have been solid as well in their last ten games by keeping opposing teams to below 65 points scored, so this will be a tight close match, but the Cyclones with the game.

Illinois are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Iowa State are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games and 12-4 ATS since 1997. Illinois are 0-1 ATS in the last two seasons and 34-47 ATS since 1997 after 6 or more consecutive wins.

Best bet: take Iowa State on the moneyline.