San Diego has to travel far in this spot while the Brewers are hot and at home as an underdog. Milwaukee will face Musgrove who has had mixed results so far. This could be a game where he pitches okay or he gets blown up with his ERA of 6.87. He has 14 earned runs so far in his starts combined, and he’s given up 2 home runs and quite a few walked batters. The Padres are also having bullpen issues so in this spot, despite being favored, could get into trouble in this game as they face a Brewers team that are solid on offense and have the better bullpen and are 10-4 to start. The Padres are off of a big win this weekend against the Dodgers, and this could be a fade spot as Musgrove can’t be trusted on the road in this spot. Milwaukee has the better lineup and the edge being at home in this series. Joe Ross is starting for the Brewers and hasn’t pitched since 2021, but has looked decent in his two starts. He’s pitched a total of 9.3 innings, he’s walked a few batters but he has 10 strikeouts so he’s been decent so far. This is a game that the Brewers can control and win in a tight matchup and take advantage of this Padres no rest travel spot. The Padres have only won one game in their last seven games versus the Brewers. Milwaukee is 6-1 straight up this season as an underdog of +100 to +150. The Brewers have done well this season against right-handed pitchers going 9-3 straight up. There is value with the home underdog.

Best bet: take Milwaukee on the moneyline (ML).