This total in this game may be too short. Even though Miami is one of the best defensive teams and plays to the Under all season, there is just too much firepower with Embiid, Lowry, Butler and others back in the lineup, to get over this. It won’t be by much more, but there is value in the score rising up 5-10 points more. There will be intensity in the game but this is not a lose and go home game so the offense will play a little more freely. Miami is good at getting points on fast breaks, and that usually gets the 76’s to chase so this game will have a more faster paced feel to it than slower and intense. Both teams have players that can put up double digit scoring. Both these teams played to the Over towards the end of the regular season in their last ten games, and their four combined games this season, though there were always key players out at one point or another, have averaged 214 so the score should be somewhere between 208 and 214 or slightly more. Defensively, Miami only gives up 108 points while Philadelphia gives up 111 on average this season. Even combined, those numbers go over this total of 208. Offensively, Miami averages 110 points while the 76’s average 114 points, and combined that’s 224. Everything trends to the Over in this matchup and the score for this game will fall somewhere between 208 and 224. There is value in taking the Over in this spot.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.