Game 1 stayed under the total because the Mavericks had a bad shooting game overall as a team, and Doncic was even worse for his team, shooting 1-8 from the 3 and 6-19 from the field. The score fell 6 points under the total of 217.That is two to three possessions. The average of the four regular season games these two teams played against each other was 244 points. Even dividing that average into what they did in this game 1 of the playoffs, the average is 228 points. OKC won the game but they didn’t shoot at their best average either in the field and at the 3 point line. They can shoot a little bit better because they are capable of it. Both teams just have to do a little better in game 2 to get the total to go over and it should. The Mavericks should play better as they will respond, while OKC will not regress but should improve on their shooting. OKC just have too many players that can shoot, so their offense will not suffer but improve. There is value in this number by taking the Over the Total. Teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (like OKC) who have 6 or more consecutive wins, and are a well rested team, playing 5 or less games in 14 days go Over the Total 71.2% of the time, or 42-17 to the Over since 1996. On the flip side, Dallas responds with a more offensive effort after a loss. Dallas is 14-6 to the Over in road games avenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Despite having a bad game, Dallas are one of the best teams in the league who have a higher average in points per game. Dallas is 31-16 to the Over since 1996 in the second round of the playoffs. OKC is 5-1 to the Over this season after 3 or more consecutive unders. There is still some value for bettors to take the Over the Total at 218.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.