The Nuggets have won three straight and this is the game where Denver sees some regression and complacency. It’s hard to close out a team and they don’t have a good record when trying. Denver is 6-13 against the spread this season after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. Denver is 0-2 against the spread this season and 2-5 against the spread in the last three seasons when attempting to close out a playoff series. The momentum shifted back to Denver when Minnesota came out and gave it to them in the first two games. It’s tough to get motivated in this spot, but the Timberwolves are too good of a team not to come back in this game with some sort of response. They will bring their best game and they need Conley to play in this game. At home with the crowd behind them, they will have an answer for Jokic and cover him better. Edwards should have a big game as he has had two games now averaging just around 20 points in both games. Towns and Gobert step up in this game with a more focused effort. Minnesota will tighten up on defense as they have allowed Denver to shoot well over 50% in three games and that is not sustainable as the series progresses. This game will be more like the first two. Now the script has flipped and everyone is writing off the Timberwolves when it was Denver before. The value lies in taking the Timberwolves at home in this spot.

Best bet: take Minnesota on the moneyline (ML).