This is a bounce back spot for the Timberwolves who have clearly botched both games so far. They had leads in games 1 and 2 and let them slip away. They can certainly play better as the team hasn’t really broken out yet and had a big game. Edwards needs to step up huge in this game. Their defense is better when they are on the road so they should bring everything into this game. There is urgency and desperation for Minnesota as they are in danger of going down 0-3, and no team has ever come back from that kind of deficit. Dallas has shot at a higher percentage in both games versus the Timberwolves so the Timberwolves should have a better shooting game from the field. They need to keep Irving and Luka out of the paint. Dallas is 5-15 against the spread in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota has a good record when revenging a close loss of 3 points or less as they are 7-2 against the spread this season. Dallas is 8-11 this season as a home favorite of 6 points or less, so they are vulnerable in this spot. Minnesota played two great first halves in both games, but Dallas was better in closing the games. They need to make the adjustments and stay focused in the second half and not let their production level off and be susceptible to the Mavericks push in second halves. Minnesota has been better on the road this season than at home and this is their spot. Minnesota is 14-6 against the spread in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Best bet: take the points with Minnesota.